| ID | Scenario | AI trajectory / Macro | Initial prior | Current | Week delta | Current prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Soft plateau | plateau / expansion | 15% | 57.5% | +17.9pp | |
| S2 | Productivity wave | moderate / expansion | 30% | 35.3% | -16.7pp | |
| S3 | AI abundance | fast / expansion | 10% | 1.1% | -2.7pp | |
| S4 | Macro headwinds | plateau / contraction | 20% | 2.4% | +0.8pp | |
| S5 | Structural disruption | moderate / contraction | 20% | 3.6% | +0.8pp | |
| S6 | Hard landing | fast / contraction | 5% | 0.0% | - |
Ratings reflect expected performance under each scenario. Robustness is probability-weighted using current scenario estimates. Strong Mixed Weak Speculative
| Asset class | S1 Soft plateau 57% | S2 Productivity wave 35% | S3 AI abundance 1% | S4 Macro headwinds 2% | S5 Structural disruption 4% | S6 Hard landing 0% | Robustness ⓘ prob-weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad US index funds | Strong | Strong | Mixed | Weak | Weak | Weak | 93% |
| AI / tech (concentrated) | Mixed | Strong | Strong | Weak | Mixed | Mixed | 67% |
| International stocks | Strong | Mixed | Weak | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | 78% |
| Real estate / REITs | Strong | Mixed | Mixed | Weak | Weak | Weak | 76% |
| Gold / hard assets | Mixed | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong | Mixed | 35% |
| TIPS / short bonds | Mixed | Weak | Weak | Strong | Mixed | Mixed | 33% |
| Cash / T-bills | Weak | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong | Mixed | 6% |
| Human capital / skills | Strong | Strong | Mixed | Mixed | Weak | Weak | 95% |
| Small AI co. exposure | Mixed | Strong | Speculative | Weak | Mixed | Mixed | 67% |
| Signal | Date | Value | 4w delta | 52w delta | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y Treasury spread | 2026-07-02 | 0.3500 | -0.0300 | -0.1200 | normalising |
| Consumer loan delinquency rate | Q1 2026 | 2.9200 | +0.0000 | -0.0600 | stable |
| Mortgage delinquency rate (single-family) | Q1 2026 | 1.8900 | +0.0000 | +0.1100 | stable |
| Nonfarm labour productivity | Q1 2026 | 119.5760 | +0.0000 | +0.6920 | below_1pct |
| Unemployment, bachelor's degree+ | Jun 2026 | 2.7000 | +0.0000 | +0.0000 | moderate |
| Job openings (JOLTS total nonfarm) | May 2026 | 7594.0000 | +0.0000 | +505.0000 | stable |
| Wage growth, bachelor's degree+ (Atlanta Fed) | May 2026 | 4.0000 | +0.0000 | -0.7000 | moderate |
| US investment grade OAS (ICE BofA) | 2026-07-02 | 0.7500 | +0.0100 | -0.0500 | tight |
| Consumer vs mortgage DQ spread | Q1 2026 | 1.0300 | +0.0000 | -0.1700 | stable |
10Y-2Y Treasury spread [pct pts]
Consumer loan delinquency rate [percent]
Nonfarm labour productivity [index]
Unemployment, bachelor's degree+ [percent]
Job openings (JOLTS total nonfarm) [thousands]
Wage growth, bachelor's degree+ (Atlanta Fed) [pct (12-month median)]
US investment grade OAS (ICE BofA) [bps]
Likelihood ratios applied on state transitions only. Active state highlighted yellow. (no change) = same state as prior run, no update applied this week.
Difference between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields. Negative (inverted) curve has preceded every US recession since 1970.
Classified on: Value | Daily | Current value: +0.3500
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| inverted_and_widening | Value < 0 | ×0.6 | ×0.5 | ×0.4 | ×2.5 | ×1.8 | ×2.0 |
| normalising ◀ (no change) | 0 ≤ Value < 1.0 | ×1.4 | ×1.3 | ×1.0 | ×0.7 | ×0.8 | ×0.5 |
| expansion_signal | Value ≥ 1.0 | ×1.8 | ×2.0 | ×1.5 | ×0.2 | ×0.3 | ×0.2 |
Bright line: value < -0.5 → Yield curve deeply inverted - recession signal elevated
Share of consumer loans (credit cards, auto, personal) 30+ days past due at commercial banks. Rising rate signals consumer stress.
Classified on: 52-week delta | Quarterly | Current value: -0.0600
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| rising | 52-week delta > +0.25 | ×0.6 | ×0.5 | ×0.4 | ×2.0 | ×1.5 | ×1.8 |
| stable ◀ (no change) | -0.25 < 52-week delta ≤ +0.25 | ×1.2 | ×1.1 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×0.9 |
| falling | 52-week delta ≤ -0.25 | ×1.5 | ×1.4 | ×1.2 | ×0.4 | ×0.5 | ×0.4 |
Share of single-family residential mortgages 30+ days past due at commercial banks. Pre-2008 crisis peak was ~2.5%; 2010 peak was ~11%.
Classified on: 52-week delta | Quarterly | Current value: +0.1100
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| rising_national | 52-week delta > +0.25 | ×0.5 | ×0.4 | ×0.3 | ×2.5 | ×2.0 | ×2.5 |
| stable ◀ (no change) | -0.25 < 52-week delta ≤ +0.25 | ×1.4 | ×1.3 | ×1.2 | ×0.6 | ×0.7 | ×0.4 |
| falling | 52-week delta ≤ -0.25 | ×1.6 | ×1.5 | ×1.3 | ×0.2 | ×0.3 | ×0.2 |
Bright line: value > 3.5 → Mortgage DQ above pre-2008 level - immediate review
Output per hour worked in the nonfarm business sector. Sustained acceleration above 2.5% YoY is the primary positive confirmation signal for AI economic impact.
Classified on: YoY % | Quarterly | Current value: +0.5800
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| accelerating_above_2pct | YoY % > 2.5 | ×0.5 | ×1.8 | ×3.0 | ×0.3 | ×0.6 | ×0.8 |
| historical_range | 1.0 < YoY % ≤ 2.5 | ×1.3 | ×1.2 | ×0.8 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×0.8 |
| below_1pct ◀ | YoY % ≤ 1.0 | ×1.5 | ×0.7 | ×0.3 | ×1.5 | ×1.3 | ×1.2 |
Unemployment rate for workers with a bachelor's degree or higher (LNS14027662). Historically runs ~0.55x the overall rate (~2-2.5% in normal conditions). Rising relative to HS-graduate unemployment is the key S5 structural disruption signal.
Classified on: Value | Monthly | Current value: +2.7000
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| elevated | Value > 3.5 | ×0.3 | ×0.5 | ×1.5 | ×0.7 | ×3.0 | ×2.5 |
| moderate ◀ (no change) | 2.5 < Value ≤ 3.5 | ×1.3 | ×1.3 | ×0.8 | ×1.2 | ×0.7 | ×0.5 |
| low | Value ≤ 2.5 | ×1.8 | ×1.5 | ×1.0 | ×0.8 | ×0.3 | ×0.2 |
Bright line: value > 4.0 → College-educated unemployment above 4% - monitor S5 signal
Total nonfarm job openings from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Used as a proxy for aggregate labor demand. Rising YoY = expanding hiring appetite; falling YoY = demand contraction. Monthly, released with ~5-week lag.
Classified on: YoY % | Monthly | Current value: +7.1200
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| rising | YoY % > 10 | ×0.8 | ×1.5 | ×1.1 | ×0.5 | ×0.6 | ×0.3 |
| stable ◀ (no change) | -10 < YoY % ≤ 10 | ×1.2 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×0.9 | ×1.0 | ×0.9 |
| falling | YoY % ≤ -10 | ×0.8 | ×0.7 | ×1.2 | ×2.0 | ×1.8 | ×2.2 |
Spread between consumer loan delinquency (DRCCLACBS) and single-family mortgage delinquency (DRSFRMACBS). Imperfect proxy - payment hierarchy means consumers default on mortgages last, so widening partly reflects prioritisation not quality. Retained as a noisy supplementary signal with reduced weighting (ratios closer to 1.0). Derived from existing FRED signals.
Component inputs: Consumer loan DQ: Q1 2026 = 2.9200 | Mortgage DQ (single-family): Q1 2026 = 1.8900
Classified on: 4-week delta | Quarterly | Current value: +0.0000
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| widening | 4-week delta > +0.25 | ×0.9 | ×0.85 | ×0.8 | ×1.4 | ×1.3 | ×1.5 |
| stable ◀ (no change) | -0.25 < 4-week delta ≤ +0.25 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 |
| tightening | 4-week delta ≤ -0.25 | ×1.2 | ×1.2 | ×1.1 | ×0.75 | ×0.8 | ×0.7 |
Median 12-month wage growth for continuously employed workers with a bachelor's degree or higher, from the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. Decelerating wage growth for educated workers is a leading indicator of structural disruption (S5). Monthly, ~6-week lag.
Classified on: Value | Monthly | Current value: +4.0000
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| decelerating | Value < 3.0 | ×1.2 | ×0.7 | ×0.4 | ×1.8 | ×2.0 | ×1.5 |
| moderate ◀ (no change) | 3.0 ≤ Value < 5.5 | ×1.2 | ×1.0 | ×0.9 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×0.9 |
| elevated | Value ≥ 5.5 | ×0.7 | ×1.5 | ×1.8 | ×0.4 | ×0.3 | ×0.2 |
Bright line: value < 2.5 → Educated-worker wage growth below 2.5% - structural disruption signal
Option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA US Corporate (IG) index vs Treasuries. Market price of investment-grade credit risk. Directly addresses the existing bright line at 200bps. Current ~79bps; pre-GFC normal 80-120bps; COVID peak ~373bps; GFC peak ~600bps.
Classified on: Value | Daily | Current value: +0.7500
| State | Boundary | ×LR per scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | ||
| tight ◀ (no change) | Value < 100 | ×1.0 | ×1.3 | ×1.2 | ×0.4 | ×0.8 | ×0.2 |
| normal | 100 ≤ Value < 200 | ×1.1 | ×1.0 | ×1.0 | ×1.1 | ×1.1 | ×0.9 |
| stress | Value ≥ 200 | ×0.6 | ×0.5 | ×0.6 | ×2.2 | ×1.4 | ×2.5 |
Bright line: value > 200 → IG spreads above 200bps - recession hedge review triggered (bright line Section 8)
Pre-committed action triggers. Written before data is observed to prevent post-hoc rationalisation.
| ID | Condition | Action | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BL1 | S5 > 0.35 | Structural disruption > 35% - review credit-sensitive real estate exposure | Not triggered |
| BL3 | S3 > 0.25 | AI abundance > 25% - review equity concentration; increase hard asset allocation | Not triggered |
| BL5 | S6 > 0.15 | Hard landing > 15% - review liquid emergency reserve; do not ignore | Not triggered |
Generated 2026-07-03 - AI Scenario Monitor